The Draft, 3 Trades and Where Next?

Draft weekend is a fun time in the NHL. It’s the official start of off-season player movement and one of the key events in building a team for the coming season.

When it comes to the amateur draft, I always take the position of trusting the scouts. Keith Gretzky and his team has done a good job identifying players to draft in the last few years. The Coyotes have lots of good talent already in the NHL, more players on the way and a few unsigned draft choices who could end up being impact players. I get a kick out of the message board experts who really want this player or think that guy can turn around a franchise after watching a few YouTube highlights and reading what so-called draft experts say.

I always appreciate how TSN hockey analyst Bob McKenzie positions himself. McKenzie, who seems to have an direct pipeline to many teams, predicts the draft based on what he hears and what he is told, not what he thinks of the players. A few years ago he predicted the Coyotes were going to go “off the grid” with the 5^th pick and they proceeded to pick the much lower rated Blake Wheeler. Think he has sources?

That said, the selection of Ekman-Larsson over Cowen was a bit of a surprise to me. Cowen is a physical, shutdown defensive type unlike anyone the Coyotes have in their organization. Ekman-Larsson shot up draft boards in the last few months and those type of players always scare me a little. Nevertheless, I’ll trust the scouts here and hope they have pegged a very good young player.

General Manager Don Maloney took an innovative route to improving the team by trading a couple of late round draft choices for players who finished last season in the American Hockey League. I did suspect that Maloney would consider trading draft picks for restricted free agents, but frankly I expected the action to be at the top of the Coyotes draft board and not at the bottom.

The Coyotes traded their 5^th round pick to the Washington Capitals for the rights to RFA defenseman Sami Lepisto. The Finnish defenseman was stuck behind a number of young defensemen in the Caps system. Lepisto was a 3rd round draft choice in 2004 and has scored 45 and 42 points in his two full AHL seasons. Lepisto has also played 14 NHL games with the Caps. He missed Hershey’s AHL championship run after injuring his spleen in the last week of the regular season.

Maloney then shipped the Yotes’ 7^th round pick to the Vancouver Canucks for defenseman Shaun Heshka. A junior teammate of Peter Mueller, Heshka has spent the last three years with the AHL Manitoba Moose, scoring 14 goals and 62 total points in 211 games. The Moose lost to the Bears in the AHL championship series this year.

Both Lepisto and Heshka have completed his entry level contracts. They will need to be qualified by 5 PM Monday or else they will become an unrestricted free agents. Much like Enver Lisin, Maloney is likely to want a fair two-way contract in place for both players. They may or may not agree leaving the possibility that they will have to be qualified (with a one way contract) or become free agents. One can assume the latter option is unlikely either by prior agreement or qualification.

While trading for restricted free agents is a solid strategy, Maloney is clearly shopping in the bargain aisle. He decided not get in on the action for high profile RFAs like Phil Kessel. One assumes the Coyotes have scouted these players extensively and had enough confidence to swap low draft choices for a shot at these players.

More curious was the trade of Brandon Prust to the Calgary Flames for veteran defenseman Jim Vandermeer.

Prust projected as little more than a 4^th line energy player for the Yotes but he was cheap -- $500K. Vandermeer has a bigger price tag. Much bigger. He has two years left on his contract at an annual hit of $2.3MM.

The trade is curious in two ways. Vandemeer is a defensive minded player who lacks mobility. He is a 5^th or 6^th defenseman on a good team. He is not the offensive minded defenseman that the Coyotes desperately need. And at $2.3MM he takes a big bite out of the $5-6MM that we know Maloney has to spend to get to the salary cap floor. Maloney wants to add veteran leadership and Vandermeer will help in that area but he is at best a modest talent.

One wonders if this trade might have been a second act to the Jokinen trade. It just seems to be very out of character for GMDM.

What is missing right now is the element of excitement to the Coyotes off-season. So far, the biggest fireworks have come in the courtroom. . Taken alone, each of these moves can be explained as reasonable hockey judgement. Collectively, they will not excite the fan base. This franchise badly needs some juice. The Coyotes need to sell tickets, They need to win now. As flawed as the Olli Jokinen trade turned out last year, it did give the franchise a shot of energy. Unfortunately that energy didn’t pay off in a productive season or a playoff berth.

There will be more changes in the next few days and hopefully there will be some exciting hockey news for Coyote fans. As we approach the Monday 5PM deadline for qualifying restricted free agents, more players may become available. And on Wednesday over 100 unrestricted free agents hit the market. The Coyotes will not be players for the available big names but I expect GMDM to be shopping the bargain aisle for useful players. The frenzy of free agent activity will also put shake some players loose in trades and that’s where I expect the Coyotes to have their best chance and giving the franchise a real energy boost.

And a shot of excitement, along with investment by the new owners and lots of hard work are all parts of pumping new life into the franchise. I’m getting sick of the Coyotes being the butt of hockey jokes. (Did you hear Montreal fans chanting “Hamilton” when the Coyotes drafted?) It’s time for this franchise to show up, make a few bold moves and show the community that getting to the playoffs is not only a good talking point, but a real possibility. Bold moves can come in business at any time but if you are building a hockey roster, this is the week to be bold.

What To Watch For On Draft Day(s)

If you’re taking in the NHL draft on Friday afternoon (4PM, Versus) there are several things to be watching for as the Coyotes are scheduled to pick at #6 and #36. Here are some things keys to look for as the draft develops.

The Bombshell Trade – There’s only one available player out there worthy of the Yotes’ #6 draft pick and that’s Boston Bruin Left Wing Phil Kessel. If there is going to be a major trade at the top of the draft, it will almost certainly include Kessel. The Coyotes have interest in trading for the 21-year-old and if the Bruins are inclined to move him, a package of #6 plus Chris Summers could get it done. Kessel might not last this long because Atlanta at #4 and Los Angeles at #5 could also be interested. If he’s going to be moved, it will almost certainly be to a team with a high draft pick as the salary cap constrained Bruins will be looking for non-NHL assets in return. This could be where Don Maloney drops his second annual draft bombshell (see Olli Jokinen) Of course, this could depend on…

The First 5 Players Picked – Most NHL observers think that John Tavares (no relation to Tony), Victor Hedman, Matt Duchesne, Brayden Schenn and Evander Kane are the top five players available in the draft. If all 5 go before the Coyotes pick at # 6 a trade down becomes more likely. Don Maloney would love to see one of these players slide to #6 so he can select that player or extract a high price from another team to trade down. And that team might be…

The Toronto Maple Leafs – Colorful Leafs GM Brian Burke wants to make his team tougher and more North American. He also wants to move up in the draft to select John Tavares or Brayden Schenn. If Burke cannot get into the top 2 and Schenn falls to 6, he and Maloney could do business. If not the Leafs, the Coyotes are unlikely to trade down below the #9 pick owned by Ottawa because players they value highly will still be available…

And The Coyotes Select – Either Defenseman Jared Cowen of the Spokane Chiefs or Forward Nazim Kadri of the London Knights. Listening to Don Maloney speak earlier this spring, he talked about the top players in the draft as “Tavares, Hedman, Duchene, Kane, Cowen and possibly Kadri”. When it became clear that the Coyotes were drafting at six and that five players were getting the most press (Tavares, Hedman, Duchesne, Kane, Schenn) he changed his tune to list those 5 players. June is liar’s month in the NHL. Players do move up and down the draft board. But it makes sense that Maloney took the easy way out by saying there are 5 great players and we get the next best. Maloney is always thinking.

What unites Cowen and Kadri is the 2008 Memorial Cup. Cowen’s Spokane Chiefs bested Kadri’s (and Mikkel Boedker) Kitchener Rangers in a terrific series. Maloney scouted that tournament heavily, went on to draft Boedker and brought along high opinions of both players. Cowen missed the second half of the 2008-09 season with a knee injury. Kadri was traded to the London Knights where his game really took off in the second half of the season.

Maloney has also alluded to cutbacks in scouting expenses this year. That could mean a less than thorough vetting of the two Euros (Oliver Ekman-Larson and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson ) ranked in the next group of the top 10 available players. That translates to a higher comfort level with players the team is more familiar with.

Cowen is rated higher in most mocks and by NHL Central Scouting. If the Coyotes pick at 6 or 7 he could be the pick. If they go lower or if Cowen is gone, Kadri will likely be the choice. And then on Saturday morning…

The Coyotes Pick at #36 – Or at least they are scheduled to. The early second round choice could go in a number of directions. Maloney has talked about possibly trading down in the 2nd to pick up an additional third round choice. The Coyotes sent their third round choice to Calgary in the Jokinen/Lombardi trade. It could also be packaged, perhaps with Calgary’s #1 in 2010 to move into the second half of the first round. If a player Maloney really likes starts to drop, he could try to trade back into the latter part of the first round.

And don’t discount the possibility of this pick being packaged with other assets to bring back immediate help. This pick won’t realistically help the big club for 2 or 3 years. For a win now team, that may not be good enough. Our guess is that whatever the course, Maloney won’t be picking at #36. He’ll either add assets by trading down or pursue a win now strategy by trading for a younger roster player or a late first round draft choice.

It will be an interesting draft. With uncertainty about how aggressive the Coyotes will (or can) be in the free agent market, trading and drafting are the keys to improving the team. With the pressure of new ownership and the urgency to win sooner rather than later, the Coyotes will be active this weekend. It will be interesting to see how active they are.