Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Half Way Home

The Coyotes concluded the first half of the 2009-10 season last night by beating the Vancouver Canucks 3-2 in a shootout. It's the continuation of a wonderful story that is quickly becoming the talk of hockey.

Since the disaster of this summer, the franchise has far exceeded expectations on the ice, been sold to a new investment group and has seen attendance start to grow after a disastrous start. It's the kind of Christmas story that warms the heart. You can almost hear Jimmy Stewart saying “It ranks right up there at the top”.

For starters, the Yotes now have 53 points in 41 games. Only San Jose, Chicago, New Jersey and Washington have more. Unthinkable for a team that most pundits picked to finish 30th this year. And frankly surprising to those of us who thought the team would do well to battle for a playoff spot.

Right now, Dave Tippett is a lock as NHL coach of the year, Don Maloney likewise as GM and Ilya Brzygalov, he of the inconsistent game, a leading contender for both the Jennings and Vezina Trophies. And the team, which badly lacks star power, finds a way to win every night. Young kids have stepped up, different players have contributed every night and no team in the league outworks the Coyotes. In fact, I've been watching hockey for a long, long time and I have to go back years to think of a team that works as hard as the Coyotes.

The current 10 game home winning streak is a franchise record. Not just for the Phoenix franchise, but the entire 30 year Jets-Coyotes NHL history. As we told you earlier this month the Coyotes need to win their home games now to build a cushion when the schedule turns against them in February and March. Since we wrote that piece, the team hasn't lost at home.

Consider this, if the Coyotes play .500 hockey over the last 41 games of the season it would give them 94 points, which would very likely be enough to make the playoffs.

Point totals aside, the Coyotes look like a playoff team. Monday night, they played San Jose even for 65 minutes in the Shark tank before losing the shootout. The next night, they did the same against a red hot Canuck team that had been sitting in Phoenix waiting for them. Both games had a playoff look and feel. And in both cases they were playing elite teams with a distinct advantage.

Better yet, there's still room to improve the product. GMDM has available budget (the Coyotes are still barely above the salary cap floor) and tradeable assets to strengthen the team. The team still needs scoring help and as the trade deadline approaches, many useful players will be available. Maloney has been a shrewd trader with a tight budget and many pressing needs. With fewer needs and some financial room to move, he could be on the prowl for an difference making acquisition at the deadline.

Also reaching the halfway point this week is the time fuse on the letter of intent signed by Ice Edge Holdings to purchase the team.

While news has been sparse since the agreement was signed, there are several important facts that have leaked out.

Ice Edge and The City of Glendale appear to have an agreement in place that will generate additional revenue for the franchise in some way shape or form. Importantly, the lease will not contain any type of out clause that might dampen fan interest. As soon as Ice Edge and the NHL have a sales contract in place, it will be time for Glendale to show their hand.

Negotiations with the league appear to be centered around the group proving their wherewithal to absorb losses over the next few years. With 90% of the purchase price committed in cash, there's reason to believe that additional money is available to cover losses as well as the credit line all franchises are required to have. As I told you earlier this month, I've been told by people within the hockey universe that these guys have money. That's good because they won't be turning a profit on day one, but the recent performance of the team has to be heartening given the size of the project and the scope of the investment. A contract should be signed with the NHL in the next 15 days.

And as for the Saskatoon option, that idea has not been well received by NHL Governors. We suspect a compromise is in order here -- a lighter schedule (say 3 games for a two year test period)at a neutral (still likely Saskatoon) site. Ice Edge can schedule those games in the first half of the year when weekday crowds are light in Phoenix. That move as well as a shift in the home schedule to include more March games (to coincide with spring training and sport oriented tourists) should address much of the schedule concern. It gives Ice Edge additional revenue and helps the NHL move the team off their books.

Perhaps best of all, attendance is growing. Yes the crowds are certainly being bumped by cut rate and free tickets but the building is getting fuller and more enthusiastic every night. Saturday's game against Detroit is almost certain to be the teams first non-promotional sell out crowd in a long time.

The stocking are full for Coyote fans this year. The team is vastly improved, new owners are on the horizon and as anticipated fans are turning out to watch the much improved product. Here's a scoop -- hockey may, may yet work in Phoenix. How great is that?

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Coyotes To Open in Europe?

The Coyotes may be headed to Europe to open the 2010-11 season. I've heard that Phoenix is on the short list of teams slated to open in Europe next year. The Euro tour is becoming a staple for the NHL and the Coyotes would play two games overseas. Likely opponents for the home and home far away from home are the San Jose Sharks.

One likely destination for the Coyotes? Prague. With 5 Czechs in their current lineup, Phoenix could be a nice attraction in that historic venue. The New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning played two games in Prague in October 2008 before large, enthusiastic crowds.

The Road Ahead Part 2

There's relief in the air in Coyoteland. The NHL and Ice Edge Holdings have signed a letter of intent for the purchase of the troubled franchise. It's far from a done deal, but it's a great sign that the Coyotes will be staying in Arizona, hopefully for many years to come.

For several months the league seemed to be cool on the Ice Edge proposal. We know that Ice Edge kicked the tires on the Florida Panthers prior to developing an interest in the Coyotes. The Saskatoon option (and why isn't it the Winnipeg option?) was a head scratcher when it first was reported and some Canadian media dismissed the group as less than stout financially. The NHL seemed far more interested in promoting the Jerry Reinsdorf solution for the Coyotes. When that option evaporated, the persistent Ice Edge group was able to cut a deal with the NHL.

We're not exactly sure why the NHL was slow to embrace Ice Edge but it may have to do with financing plans that are unorthodox or unusual. And there's sure to be some concern about the Saskatoon deal. We'll find out more as the vetting process goes on.

That process will also tell us about how deep the Ice Edge pockets are. While IE is saying all the right things about not even thinking about losses, it's going to take a while to turn this battleship around. The concern if the league likely centers around how much money the group is prepared to lose to sustain losses through what will be a tough transition.

There are some facts emerging about Ice Edge Holdings that will be great comfort to Arizona hockey fans.

For starters, the letter of intent has a 30 day expiration. That puts pressure on the group, the City of Glendale and the NHL to get a deal done quickly. The NHL desperately wants/needs to get the Coyotes off the books as soon as possible. The City needs to put this ugly story to bed and the sooner a definitive sale agreement is signed, the league can conduct their due diligence and move towards approving the sale.

Ice Edge is apparently putting up 90% of the purchase price of the team in cash. While the team will most certainly have a line of credit and likely will be looking at significant short term losses, they will be spared the crushing debt service that handcuffed the Moyes ownership.

And perhaps most importantly, these guys have apparently have money. Lots of it. It was a question early on but apparently it is in the process of being answered. In fact an official from another NHL team told me this week they are better equipped financially than many other teams in the league. After the early concern about the wherewithal of the group, this comes as a pleasant and welcome surprise.

Ice Edge takes over an organization that a Phoenix sports executive from another team told me was bloated. By ways of comparison, the healthier Suns have a much leaner team and arena organization than the Coyotes. That will likely change under new management.

And that cost savings, along with the elimination of debt service and whatever concessions Glendale brings to the table will put this franchise on the road to financial respectability. No it won't solve all the financial problems but it's a big start.

The whole Saskatoon thing remains a mystery. Apparently the City is willing to let a few games go as part of the Ice Edge plan to ease cash concerns. Whether the league and the players association will agree is another matter. There's some skepticism on both sides that could derail the plan. Our guess? Perhaps a scaled back plan (say 3 games vs. the Western Canada teams) would be tolerable at least as a test. And hopefully in a couple of years, the Arizona franchise will be healthy enough to make this a non-factor.

There's much good to be found here. Introducing a new ownership team will give doubting local fans confidence to begin supporting the team. And they will come back to find a team that is in the thick of playoff contention and vastly improved over previous seasons. There is nothing that will turn this area on to hockey quicker than playoff hockey.

I was in the stands a few years ago when the Anaheim Ducks won their first ever playoff series. It was an extraordinary experience. Fans were crying, because not only had the team made the playoffs come back to Orange County but because the team found a way to win a series. The excitement translated into season ticket sales -- 4,000 new tickets in one season.

It could happen here. It would be an extraordinary conclusion to a bizarre year. And it would be enough to leave more than a few people crying in the stands.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

The Road Ahead Part 1

As the Coyotes are battling the Kings tonight in LA, it’s a good time for us to take a look at the season to date and peek ahead at the balance of the year.

The Coyotes are exceeding expectations. The team just completed a three game home stand with three wins, extending their current winning streak to 5 games. At 18-11-1 after 30 games, the Yotes are on pace for 101 points. History would say that's more than enough to make the playoffs and in fact it would be the best season of the 13 the team has had in Arizona.

And the team has demonstrated tremendous resilience this year. Just when you think the team is going to go upside down, they pull off a gutty win over the Philadelphia Flyers and steal a road game at Anaheim.

While improvement was expected (and crucial) this year, a more realistic expectation was that the team would scrap for a playoff spot. Vastly improved coaching and goaltending have been the keys for the rapid improvement of the team.

One cannot underestimate the body of work done by Dave Tippett and his assistant coaches during the first two months of the season. For most of the past four years, the Coyotes looked disorganized and were easily panicked when things weren’t going well. Not anymore. Tippett is everything you would want in a coach. Firm, organized, intelligent and confident. He’s in any conversation about the best bench coaches in the NHL and the unquestioned half-season NHL coach of the year.

And credit is also due to assistant coaches Ulf Samuelsson and Dave King. The teams tight defensive play is the product of great checking, sound defensive play and attention to detail. That takes a lot of work from all of the coaches. It’s paying off this year.

All summer, we mused that the team would rise and fall largely on the play of Ilya Bryzgalov. Well no one could have seen this season coming. The historically inconsistent Bryzgalov has been money all year with a league leading 4 shutouts, a 1.99 goals allowed average and a sparkling .925 save percentage. The Coyotes are third in the NHL in team defense and contenders for both the Vezina (outstanding goaltender) and Jennings (team defense) Trophies.

And the play on defense has been very good. The Coyotes have had a strong defensive core over the last few years and team veterans Ed Jovanoski, Zbynek Michalek and Keith Yandle have all been excellent. Jovanoski is having his best season in years and Yandle has blossomed into one of the best young defensemen in the NHL.

General Manager Don Maloney has made his best acquisitions in supplementing this group. Veteran Adrian Aucoin has added offense as well as a steadying influence on the backline. Jim Vandermeer is slow but brings a nice physical presence. Rookie Sami Lepisto has been a pleasant surprise, and lately, Dave Schlemko has given the team good minutes in relief of injured players. With Kurt Sauer due back soon from concussion symptoms, the Coyotes have a surplus on the backline that could figure into a trade for scoring help.

And there is a definite need for scoring help. The Coyotes are 28th in the NHL with 2.43 goals per game. Somehow, the team needs to find more scoring. When you look at the current roster there is little reason to believe that improvement will come from within and the development of young players in San Antonio doesn’t give much hope that a Kyle Turris or Mikkel Boedker will return to fortify the offense.

There is room for GM Don Maloney to find a scorer. The Coyotes are barely above the NHL salary cap floor and we’re pretty sure they have available budget dollars to make an acquisition. The team also has assets – Calgary’s 1st this year, Philadelphia’s 2nd next year plus their own draft choices and several top end defensemen who are not playing in the NHL. A deal to add scoring is imminent. The only question is where it will come from and what will be the price.

Now for the Coyotes comes the big question – can this success last?

It all starts in Glendale. The Coyotes need to defend home ice and pile up points in December and January. The Coyotes are in the middle of having 9 of 15 games at home in December (6 of 12 remaining) and then 9 of 14 at Jobing.com arena. Overall, of the team's next 25 games, 15 are at home. While that kind of schedule skew is very curious (why only 6 home games in tourist rich March?) it's created a mid season opportunity for the team. With the swagger that comes from winning and a very favorable home schedule, the Coyotes should be around 70 points at the end of January.

And it continues on the ice. Bryzgalov needs to stay on top of his game. A big concern comes after the February Olympics where he will likely start in goal for the Russian Olympic team. A heavy workload in Phoenix and the same in Vancouver could raise fatigue concerns. With wildly inconsistent backup Jason LaBarbera, every game is an adventure. The ability of Bryz to shoulder a heavy workload as well as excel along the way will determine the fate of the team.

No one is looking at Phoenix like they’re a Stanley Cup contender, but this team desperately needs to make the playoffs and show the desert that there is hockey life after April 1st. For the first time, Maloney will be a buyer and not a seller at the trade deadline. It could be an advantageous spot because Phoenix not only has assets to trade but is one of the few teams that has salary cap room available.

And it will be fun because for the first time, Jobing.com Arena can look forward to hosting a playoff game.

Hopefully several.