Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Yes Nigel. And Keith. And Scott...

The Coyotes have qualified 12 RFAs including most of those expected including Scott Upshall and Keith Yandle. Bubble players Nigel Dawes and Dan Winnik were qualified as well as Enver Lisin, who has been tendered an offer from a Russian KHL team.

By issuing a qualifying offer, the team essentially keeps the players rights. Players can sign the QO or negotiate for a longer, larger contract. 4 players -- Dawes, Upshall, Winnik and Lepisto have the right to file for arbitration.

Joakim Lindstrom was the only player who spent the majority of his time with the big club last year who was not qualified. He is now a unrestricted free agent.

Here's the official announcement...

http://coyotes.nhl.com/team/app/?service=page&page=NewsPage&articleid=432288

Monday, June 29, 2009

No Nigel?

The 5PM Eastern deadline for qualifying restricted free agents has passed. we'll likely get an update from the Coyotes later today on what players they have qualified and perhaps a couple of contract signings.

Seven players who finished the 2008-09 season on the Coyotes roster are RFAs and must be qualified by today. They are Nigel Dawes, Keith Yandle, Scott Upshall, Daniel Winnik, Joakim Lindstron, Enver Lisin and Brian McGrattan. Petr Prucha was also in this group but he signed a two year contract last week. In addition to players from the NHL roster, Josh Tordjman heads a group of 11 players from the San Antonio Rampage who are also RFAs. Defensemen Sami Lepisto and Shawn Heshka, obtained during the draft weekend and forward Stefan Myers who came over in the Steven Rupprecht trade are also RFAs.

So what does this mean?

Well we expect Yandle and Upshall will be qualified without exception. Both of these players are strong NHL assets and will be looking for long term contracts and big raises. Don Maloney has said he would like to get a fair two way contract in place for Enver Lisin. They would mean making a deal before he is qualified. Lepisto, Heshka and Torjdman are probably in the same boat as Lisin. The Coyotes have already announced that McGrattan is not coming back and Winnik may get an AHL contract.

That leaves Nigel Dawes and Joakim Lindstrom as question marks. Both are depth players who a) have flashed some scoring ability and b) are relatively cheap. Lindstrom had 9 goals in 44 games after coming over in a trade with Anaheim and he made $500,000 last year. Dawes made $587,500 and he potted 10 goals, splitting the season between the Yotes and the New York Rangers.

It's hard to see room for both of them in Phoenix. And in what may or may not be a predictor of what is happening, Dawes has been removed from the Coyotes roster on the team web site. Maloney was disappointed in his play after joining the Coyotes and signals seem to point to Nigel moving on next year.

Once the Coyotes publish their qualifying offers and contract signings, it will give a good picture of what roster moves to expect in the next few days.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

The Draft, 3 Trades and Where Next?

Draft weekend is a fun time in the NHL. It’s the official start of off-season player movement and one of the key events in building a team for the coming season.

When it comes to the amateur draft, I always take the position of trusting the scouts. Keith Gretzky and his team has done a good job identifying players to draft in the last few years. The Coyotes have lots of good talent already in the NHL, more players on the way and a few unsigned draft choices who could end up being impact players. I get a kick out of the message board experts who really want this player or think that guy can turn around a franchise after watching a few YouTube highlights and reading what so-called draft experts say.

I always appreciate how TSN hockey analyst Bob McKenzie positions himself. McKenzie, who seems to have an direct pipeline to many teams, predicts the draft based on what he hears and what he is told, not what he thinks of the players. A few years ago he predicted the Coyotes were going to go “off the grid” with the 5th pick and they proceeded to pick the much lower rated Blake Wheeler. Think he has sources?

That said, the selection of Ekman-Larsson over Cowen was a bit of a surprise to me. Cowen is a physical, shutdown defensive type unlike anyone the Coyotes have in their organization. Ekman-Larsson shot up draft boards in the last few months and those type of players always scare me a little. Nevertheless, I’ll trust the scouts here and hope they have pegged a very good young player.

General Manager Don Maloney took an innovative route to improving the team by trading a couple of late round draft choices for players who finished last season in the American Hockey League. I did suspect that Maloney would consider trading draft picks for restricted free agents, but frankly I expected the action to be at the top of the Coyotes draft board and not at the bottom.

The Coyotes traded their 5th round pick to the Washington Capitals for the rights to RFA defenseman Sami Lepisto. The Finnish defenseman was stuck behind a number of young defensemen in the Caps system. Lepisto was a 3rd round draft choice in 2004 and has scored 45 and 42 points in his two full AHL seasons. Lepisto has also played 14 NHL games with the Caps. He missed Hershey’s AHL championship run after injuring his spleen in the last week of the regular season.

Maloney then shipped the Yotes’ 7th round pick to the Vancouver Canucks for defenseman Shaun Heshka. A junior teammate of Peter Mueller, Heshka has spent the last three years with the AHL Manitoba Moose, scoring 14 goals and 62 total points in 211 games. The Moose lost to the Bears in the AHL championship series this year.

Both Lepisto and Heshka have completed his entry level contracts. They will need to be qualified by 5 PM Monday or else they will become an unrestricted free agents. Much like Enver Lisin, Maloney is likely to want a fair two-way contract in place for both players. They may or may not agree leaving the possibility that they will have to be qualified (with a one way contract) or become free agents. One can assume the latter option is unlikely either by prior agreement or qualification.

While trading for restricted free agents is a solid strategy, Maloney is clearly shopping in the bargain aisle. He decided not get in on the action for high profile RFAs like Phil Kessel. One assumes the Coyotes have scouted these players extensively and had enough confidence to swap low draft choices for a shot at these players.

More curious was the trade of Brandon Prust to the Calgary Flames for veteran defenseman Jim Vandermeer.

Prust projected as little more than a 4th line energy player for the Yotes but he was cheap -- $500K. Vandermeer has a bigger price tag. Much bigger. He has two years left on his contract at an annual hit of $2.3MM.

The trade is curious in two ways. Vandemeer is a defensive minded player who lacks mobility. He is a 5th or 6th defenseman on a good team. He is not the offensive minded defenseman that the Coyotes desperately need. And at $2.3MM he takes a big bite out of the $5-6MM that we know Maloney has to spend to get to the salary cap floor. Maloney wants to add veteran leadership and Vandermeer will help in that area but he is at best a modest talent.

One wonders if this trade might have been a second act to the Jokinen trade. It just seems to be very out of character for GMDM.

What is missing right now is the element of excitement to the Coyotes off-season. So far, the biggest fireworks have come in the courtroom. . Taken alone, each of these moves can be explained as reasonable hockey judgement. Collectively, they will not excite the fan base. This franchise badly needs some juice. The Coyotes need to sell tickets, They need to win now. As flawed as the Olli Jokinen trade turned out last year, it did give the franchise a shot of energy. Unfortunately that energy didn’t pay off in a productive season or a playoff berth.

There will be more changes in the next few days and hopefully there will be some exciting hockey news for Coyote fans. As we approach the Monday 5PM deadline for qualifying restricted free agents, more players may become available. And on Wednesday over 100 unrestricted free agents hit the market. The Coyotes will not be players for the available big names but I expect GMDM to be shopping the bargain aisle for useful players. The frenzy of free agent activity will also put shake some players loose in trades and that’s where I expect the Coyotes to have their best chance and giving the franchise a real energy boost.

And a shot of excitement, along with investment by the new owners and lots of hard work are all parts of pumping new life into the franchise. I’m getting sick of the Coyotes being the butt of hockey jokes. (Did you hear Montreal fans chanting “Hamilton” when the Coyotes drafted?) It’s time for this franchise to show up, make a few bold moves and show the community that getting to the playoffs is not only a good talking point, but a real possibility. Bold moves can come in business at any time but if you are building a hockey roster, this is the week to be bold.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Coyotes Reading Room

Some interesting stuff from around the Internet on the eve of the NHL draft

Gretzky would consider a pay cut to stay in his position. Hmmm...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/gretzky-would-consider-salary-cut/article1194684/


Why would Jerry Reinsdorf want to buy the Coyotes?

http://espn.go.com/chicago/columns/blog?post=4281827&name=cimaglia

sounds a lot like our assessment originally posted on May 22nd.

And colorful Leafs GM Brian Burke thinks hockey can be a success in Phoenix...

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/postedsports/archive/2009/06/23/brian-burke-has-faith-in-phoenix.aspx

a position that no doubt most of us will agree with.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

What To Watch For On Draft Day(s)

If you’re taking in the NHL draft on Friday afternoon (4PM, Versus) there are several things to be watching for as the Coyotes are scheduled to pick at #6 and #36. Here are some things keys to look for as the draft develops.

The Bombshell Trade – There’s only one available player out there worthy of the Yotes’ #6 draft pick and that’s Boston Bruin Left Wing Phil Kessel. If there is going to be a major trade at the top of the draft, it will almost certainly include Kessel. The Coyotes have interest in trading for the 21-year-old and if the Bruins are inclined to move him, a package of #6 plus Chris Summers could get it done. Kessel might not last this long because Atlanta at #4 and Los Angeles at #5 could also be interested. If he’s going to be moved, it will almost certainly be to a team with a high draft pick as the salary cap constrained Bruins will be looking for non-NHL assets in return. This could be where Don Maloney drops his second annual draft bombshell (see Olli Jokinen) Of course, this could depend on…

The First 5 Players Picked – Most NHL observers think that John Tavares (no relation to Tony), Victor Hedman, Matt Duchesne, Brayden Schenn and Evander Kane are the top five players available in the draft. If all 5 go before the Coyotes pick at # 6 a trade down becomes more likely. Don Maloney would love to see one of these players slide to #6 so he can select that player or extract a high price from another team to trade down. And that team might be…

The Toronto Maple Leafs – Colorful Leafs GM Brian Burke wants to make his team tougher and more North American. He also wants to move up in the draft to select John Tavares or Brayden Schenn. If Burke cannot get into the top 2 and Schenn falls to 6, he and Maloney could do business. If not the Leafs, the Coyotes are unlikely to trade down below the #9 pick owned by Ottawa because players they value highly will still be available…

And The Coyotes Select – Either Defenseman Jared Cowen of the Spokane Chiefs or Forward Nazim Kadri of the London Knights. Listening to Don Maloney speak earlier this spring, he talked about the top players in the draft as “Tavares, Hedman, Duchene, Kane, Cowen and possibly Kadri”. When it became clear that the Coyotes were drafting at six and that five players were getting the most press (Tavares, Hedman, Duchesne, Kane, Schenn) he changed his tune to list those 5 players. June is liar’s month in the NHL. Players do move up and down the draft board. But it makes sense that Maloney took the easy way out by saying there are 5 great players and we get the next best. Maloney is always thinking.

What unites Cowen and Kadri is the 2008 Memorial Cup. Cowen’s Spokane Chiefs bested Kadri’s (and Mikkel Boedker) Kitchener Rangers in a terrific series. Maloney scouted that tournament heavily, went on to draft Boedker and brought along high opinions of both players. Cowen missed the second half of the 2008-09 season with a knee injury. Kadri was traded to the London Knights where his game really took off in the second half of the season.

Maloney has also alluded to cutbacks in scouting expenses this year. That could mean a less than thorough vetting of the two Euros (Oliver Ekman-Larson and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson ) ranked in the next group of the top 10 available players. That translates to a higher comfort level with players the team is more familiar with.

Cowen is rated higher in most mocks and by NHL Central Scouting. If the Coyotes pick at 6 or 7 he could be the pick. If they go lower or if Cowen is gone, Kadri will likely be the choice. And then on Saturday morning…

The Coyotes Pick at #36 – Or at least they are scheduled to. The early second round choice could go in a number of directions. Maloney has talked about possibly trading down in the 2nd to pick up an additional third round choice. The Coyotes sent their third round choice to Calgary in the Jokinen/Lombardi trade. It could also be packaged, perhaps with Calgary’s #1 in 2010 to move into the second half of the first round. If a player Maloney really likes starts to drop, he could try to trade back into the latter part of the first round.

And don’t discount the possibility of this pick being packaged with other assets to bring back immediate help. This pick won’t realistically help the big club for 2 or 3 years. For a win now team, that may not be good enough. Our guess is that whatever the course, Maloney won’t be picking at #36. He’ll either add assets by trading down or pursue a win now strategy by trading for a younger roster player or a late first round draft choice.

It will be an interesting draft. With uncertainty about how aggressive the Coyotes will (or can) be in the free agent market, trading and drafting are the keys to improving the team. With the pressure of new ownership and the urgency to win sooner rather than later, the Coyotes will be active this weekend. It will be interesting to see how active they are.

Gretzky Waits...

Coyotes incumbent coach Wayne Gretzky is watching and waiting as the Yotes ownership is sorted out in bankruptcy court.

http://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=282651

It's been rumored that the Reinsdorf-Kaites-(Tavares?) ownership group may sever ties with The Great One or offer him to a non-coaching role in the organization. Certainly can't be too comfortable watching as the action unfolds.

Even though Tom Renney has accepted a position as assistant coach in Edmonton, we believe that he would be the leading candidate to replace Gretzky if a coaching change is mandated by the new owners.

Monday, June 22, 2009

Coyotes Auction August 5th. Only Local Owners Need Apply

The news is good for Coyotes fans tonight.

For starters, the NHL announced in a court filing and later confirmed in court that the Jerry Reinsdorf-John Kaites (-Tony Tavares?) group would be filing a bid to buy the team by the Friday deadline.

Then Judge Tom dropped a Baum-shell on Jim Balsillie’s bid to move the team to Canada by setting an August 5th auction date for owners who want to operate the team in Arizona. The Judge indicated that he likes the ease of selling the team locally, noting that there would be multiple legal complications to any offer that would move the team, especially if it was against the will of the NHL. Should no local owner be selected or qualified on the August 5th, a second auction would be held on September 10th that could potentially open the team to relocation. Think of this date as “if necessary” and hope that the game is never played.

The NHL has long held that a bid to purchase the team and keep it in Arizona was forthcoming and the news that the bid is imminent is good. Additionally, minority owner John Breslow has talked of offering a bid and there are still others who may be lurking. It remains to be seen if Breslow will enter the bidding by Friday’s deadline but one possibility is that he may join the Reinsdorf- Kaites (-Tavares?) group.

Negotiations with the City of Glendale will be following. The City expressed concern that August 5th was an aggressive deadline. After looking at the alternatives, that will seem like an eternity for them to close a deal.

Still to be revealed are the other members of the bidding group. There has been speculation that Hollywood producer (and aspiring NHL owner) Jerry Bruckheimer may be part of the action. We believe that Arte Moreno, the owner of baseball’s Los Angeles Angels and a Phoenix resident may also be a potential investor.

So now that the Reinsdorf- Kaites (-Tavares?) group is officially out of the water, many questions emerge. There was much speculation early on that Wayne Gretzky would not be retained in his current role if the ownership went in this direction. We’ll find out soon if that is the case. It’s unlikely that the iconic and ever-gracious Gretzky would simply be dismissed but he may be asked to take a lesser and lower paying role in the management of the team.

The player budget floor 2009-10 is also on the table. If Gary Bettman is directing Don Maloney with the understanding that NHL money was paying the bills, you can bet the Coyotes would be close to the floor minimum. With new money and ownership was coming to the table, that could mean a bigger player budget for next year. And with shopping season right around the corner, it’s fair to assume that this issue has already been vetted with the R-K-(T?) group.

And finally, changes in the off-ice management of the team may be on the table. If Tony Tavares is an active participant, that will likely signal some realignment of the front office. One can assume that based on the reports of high administrative expenses, Tony would be a tiger in holding down costs. Tavares has a reputation for being a hardnosed operator but his experience and marketing background could be a large asset to the franchise.

We’ll know a lot more later this week. For now, we’ll take solace in knowing that the cavalry is on the way, they are bringing a checkbook and they seem willing to dig in a make this franchise a success. And they are doing all of these things without dragging the team off to Hamilton.

Local Bid For Coyotes Coming (Very) Soon

In a briefing for today's hearing in bankruptcy court, the NHL has informed the court that a local bid for the team will be forthcoming, perhaps as soon as the end of this week. It's believed that the bid is coming from the John Kaites-Jerry Reinsdorf group, which earlier this month formed Glendale Hockey LLC according to an Arizona Corporation Commission filing.

Read about it here...

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/story/2009/06/22/sp-coyotes-nhl.html

Friday, June 19, 2009

Prucha Re-ups for 2 Years

The Coyotes have signed left wing Petr Prucha to a 2 year contract. Prucha played for $1..6 million last year and likely would not have been qualified at that amount. It's expected he will receive less money in exchange for a two year commitment.

Prucha, who will turn 27 in September, had 2 goals and 8 assists in 19 games after joining the Coyotes at the trade deadline in the Derek Morris trade. In his four year NHL career, he has scored 65 goals including 30 in his rookie season in New York. Prucha is a quick energetic player who could be an nice asset for the Yotes if he can regain his goal scoring touch.

Importantly, this signing shows that GM Don Maloney has some latitude to sign players for more than one season. That's a promising sign.

Update: According to TSN, Prucha's contract is for $1.1 miilion per year.

Reinprecht Traded to Florida

Steve Reinprecht will not be back with the Coyotes next year. Facing a situation where the team felt they could not resign the player, the Yotes have swapped his rights to the Florida Panthers in exchange for 23-year-old left wing Stefan Myers. We’re checking with our AHL contracts and will have a scouting report on Myers shortly.

Myers was drafted in the second round (#55 overall) by the Panthers in 2003. He has spent the last four seasons with the American League Rochester Americans scoring 64 goals and 130 points in 266 games. He made his NHL debut with the Panthers last year going scoreless in 4 games. Meyer stands 6’ 2” and weighs 194. He is a restricted free agent.

Upon completion of the trade, Reinprecht signed a three year contract with the Panthers averaging just a little over $2 million per season. Since coming to Phoenix in a deadline deal with Calgary in 2005, he had been a useful player who provided leadership and versatility. The 33-year-old went 14-27-41 last year despite missing a month with a shoulder injury. It’s worth noting that his absence from the lineup coincided with the Coyotes February swoon that cost the team any chance at a playoff spot.

Update: Our AHL correspondent (who happens to be in Rochester) tells us that Myers is a good team guy, but only a little above average player for the AHL level. He questions whether Myers can ever be a full time NHLer. Myers has been in Rochester a long time and might've gotten a little stale. Even so, he's still young and maybe with a change of scene and another year older, he might be ready to take another step up.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Win. Now.

Yes, the Coyotes have committed to youth. Yes, they have traded veteran chips for younger assets in each of the last two seasons. And yes, they have not only loaded up on youngsters, they’ve played the kids and allowed them to get valuable NHL experience.

In fact, last year the Coyotes routinely played a minimum of 10 players with 2 or less years experience in the league. Phoenix iced the second youngest team in the league last season.

But now the team is in a quandary. Like it or not, this is a win now team. New owners, old owners or for that matter any owners cannot stand another $30 million dollar bloodbath. The only way to fix the financial condition of the team is to win. Now. Until the team on the ice turns the corner, the turnout in the stands will not materialize. No uptick in fan support and we’ll see more summers of wondering whether this team is here for the long haul.

Oh and by the way Don Maloney, you can spend to the salary cap floor. And be sure and get league approval before you make any long term contract commitments.

Gee, thanks.

If you read yesterday’s entry, you know that Maloney has somewhere in the neighborhood of $5-6million to get the two things the Coyotes really need – a high end goal scorer and a top 4 defenseman.

Oy.

So how do they do it?

Well, for starters this is not business as usual. It’s great that the Coyotes have the #6 and #36 pick in this draft. It’s great that they have Calgary’s #1 next year. And Philadelphia’s #2 the year after. Because they will need every one of those assets.

And free agency may or may not help. The uncertainty surrounding the team and the questions about whether there will be long term commitments available may make this a tougher sell. Derek Morris is the most obvious candidate but whether or not he will be affordable is a question.

The Coyotes brain trust needs to think outside of the box. Way outside of the box. Picking the best player available is a nice, safe strategy. It may set the next management team up for success.

So how do the Coyotes stay true to their (current) principles and win now?

Here are a few suggestions…

1. Trade assets, including draft picks for restricted free agents. There’s an interesting dynamic at play in the NHL right now. With so many teams bumping up against the cap, some very good young players may not be affordable to their current teams. Two very capable assets that are rumored to be available are 21 year-old (and 36 goal scorer) Phil Kessel of the Boston Bruins and 23-year-old defenseman Cam Barker of the Chicago Blackhawks.

Both players would fill glaring needs for the Yotes. Kessel is a dynamic goal scorer. Barker hasn’t been all that was hoped for when he was picked 3rd in the draft a few years ago but he contributes on offense (49 points) can run a power play and still has plenty of development time to round out his game.

Both of these players will come with a big ticket. Kessel will want a contract close to $4 million and Barker likely will be in the $2-2.5 million range. Their current teams will also extract a heavy cost in assets, likely draft choices and possibly some current roster players. Prospects like Maxim Goncharov and Chris Summers could also be in play.

Normally trading draft choices is verboten for a rebuilding team. But this is a win now team. Let's say you trade your 1st round pick for Kessel. You’ve added a proven young asset. You can only hope the draft pick turns out as good. That’s one way to be on strategy by continuing to build with youth but it would also dramatically help your chances of winning now.

There’s a lucky strike extra here too. The off-ice buzz this kind of dramatic move would generate could only help the franchise sell tickets.

2. Move Ed Jovanoski. Well, not so fast. Even though he’s doesn’t play up to his paycheck ($6.5 million) he’s still a quality top pair defenseman in the league. He would have to be replaced with a similar caliber player that carries a lower ticket. He could potentially be packaged in one of two ways.

Let’s say that a team below the Coyotes covets a certain player in the draft. Oh, for instance the Toronto Maple Leafs. Picking at 7th, the Leafs could swap picks and defensemen with the Yotes. Jovo goes to Toronto and Tomas Kaberle comes to the desert. It’s pretty much a talent wash but the Coyotes would get about $2 million in salary relief.

Or a team like the Philadelphia Flyers could come into play here. The Flyers desperately need a top pair defenseman and they want to move salary. They may target Florida’s UFA Jay Bouwmeester. If that fails perhaps they would be interested in moving some salary (the oft rumored Joffrey Lupul) and a talented defenseman (Matt Carle?) for Jovo. The Flyers get the top pair defenseman they want and move salary in the process. The Coyotes get two quality players for the cost of one and a half.

Of course, Jovo has a no-trade agreement that will have to be waived. Considering he is really the only bad contract the Coyotes own, I wouldn’t be surprised if Don Maloney hasn’t already visited with him and his representation about this possibility.

3. Take salary AND get assets in a trade. Give is your contracted, your rich, your huddled masses…

A few years ago, the San Jose Sharks obtained a 1st draft choice from the New Jersey Devils to take players off their hands so that the Devils could get under the cap. That could happen again this year. It’s possible that teams may approach the Coyotes and offer players and sweeten the pot with “future considerations” if they would take a bad contract. The problem with this route is that the contracts offered may be really long and really bad. This will be an option but don’t get too excited. There won’t be much value here.

4. And finally, there’s good old fashioned trading. Assert for asset. Most likely the reverse of last year’s Keith Ballard-Olli Jokinen trade with the Coyotes seeking help on defense in exchange for a forward.

Maloney's former employer, the New York Rangers, have long been one of Maloney's favorite trading partners. That pattern could continue this off season. One of the Coyotes biggest needs is are right handed shooting defensemen. The Rangers have 6 on their NHL roster and could be interested in moving one to fill some of their glaring holes on the wing.

If we are talking a talent for talent swap here, something along the lines of a Viktor Tikhonov for Bobby Sanguinetti trade could be possible. The Rangers need good young forwards. Sanguinetti was a former first round choice of Maloney's in New York, who is considered to be NHL ready after an impressive rookie season in the American Hockey League. Both teams fill a real need with players drafted in similar positions and each one year into their entry level contract.

It’s a real challenging problem. Stay true to youth. Build a franchise foundation. And, oh yes, win now! It will challenge Don Maloney in ways he never imagined when he took this job. And as the Coyotes face the most important summer ever, his work will go a long way to determining whether the team will succeed next year on and off the ice.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

I'd Rather Be Talking About Hockey

Isn’t it a pleasure to spend some time talking about hockey?

As the Coyotes get ready for the NHL draft and free agency, I thought a good place to start would be a review of the Coyotes salary cap situation and the internal decisions they will need to make over the next few weeks. Since the Coyotes are still technically bankrupt, they are controlled by agreement between the NHL and the Moyes camp. Of course, the NHL is footing the bills but a player budget will have to be agreed upon by both sides. One can probably assume that until a new owner is in place, the team will be spending at or near the salary cap floor. While the NHL has stood firm for Phoenix, there is a definite limit to their largesse.

The NHL salary structure capped all teams at a $56.7 Million payroll in 2008-09. The amount is unlikely to change in 2009-10 and it will likely slide backwards in 2010-11. The cap structure also requires teams to spend to a salary cap floor, which was $40.7 million in 2008-09.

At the trading deadline, Coyote GM Don Maloney made a number of moves that changed the makeup, culture and payroll of the Coyotes. Maloney’s efforts did not go unnoticed. Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke called Maloney “the first star” of the trading deadline. According to Burke, Maloney gave himself “tremendous salary cap flexibility” that could turn out to be an asset in the trading activity that surrounds the draft.

The Coyotes have 16 players who played all or most of the season in the NHL under contract for 2009-2010. That group accounts for a base salary cap hit of $29.4 Million Dollars. In addition, the Yotes are still carrying a $700K annual buyout payment to former player Dave Scatchard.
Here are the players under contract… 6 players have the potential to earn an additional $3.9 million in entry level contract bonuses. This money includes signing, games played and performance bonuses. For the purposes of the salary cap, only signing bonuses and games played bonuses (when reached) can be counted against the cap. So if you are building an annual budget, it makes sense to start at the base cap salaries.

The Yotes have 8 restricted free agents on their roster – Keith Yandle, Scott Upshall, Enver Lisin, Nigel Dawes, Petr Prucha, Josh Tordjman, Dan Winnik, Joakim Lindstrom and Brian McGrattan.

Yandle and Upshall will definitely be qualified and should expect contracts in the $1.6-1.7 range. Don Maloney has stated he wants to sign Lisin to a 2-way contract but he is also expected to have an offer from a Russian KHL team. Best case – about an $800K NHL salary. Prucha won’t be qualified but he may be willing to sign for less than the $1.6MM he made last year. He could also end up in the KHL with fellow Czech and former New York Ranger teammate Jaromir Jagr. Dawes and Lindstrom may or may not be qualified. They are inexpensive assets but both are little more than depth players. McGrattan won’t be back and Winnik will at best get a 2-way contract.

So with Yandle and Upshall in for $3.5MM total and either Prucha or Lisin at $800K-$1 Million, that brings the payout for 19 players to about $33.8 million. That leaves about $7 million for free agents.

Steven Reinprecht was a team leader last year and a reliable player. $2 million is probably too pricey for a return engagement but he may be willing to sign for less money. Let’s say $1.5MM. Ken Klee was an excellent pickup and mentor on defense for $625K. He could be back at the same money. Dimitri Kalinin is unlikely to return.

Soooo…if you agree to this point, the Coyotes would have spent approx. $36 million on 21 players. That leaves approx $5.7 million and some large holes to fill. Tomorrow, I’ll look at some of the Coyotes options to fill out their roster with free agents, trades and draft day maneuvering.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

A Sigh of Relief

The news today is good. Judge Redfield “Tom” Baum ruled against the Moyes/Balsillie motion that would have forced the bankrupt team to auction next Monday. The team will remain in Phoenix for the near term and under the agreement between Moyes and the NHL, it will likely be auctioned sometime in September. An auction that the NHL hopes will bring new local ownership that will stabilize the franchise for years to come.

The ruling is a big win for the NHL and Phoenix hockey fans. The league argued that the bid was an attempt to circumvent the league rules on where teams play and franchise ownership. The court clearly sided with the NHL on franchise relocation. “Simply put, the court disagrees with the assertions by the Debtors and PSE that the relocation requirement can be excised from the contract”, said the Judge. It did not address the franchise ownership issue directly but implied that the league has the right to approve ownership groups.

So for now, Mr. Balsillie can consider the side door closed. Slammed in his face might be a better description.

And pardon us if we enjoy a laugh at some of the self serving spin coming out of Canada today. “A setback, not a defeat” according to Team Balsillie. As Shane Doan might say (in those annoying Desert School commercials) “Really”?

The entire decision goes into much richer detail. And it refutes the Moyes/Balsillie contentions at most every point. You can read it here...

http://multimedia.thestar.com/acrobat/58/ef/9fa676434959a4de525fe6a8a7c3.pdf

Judge Tom did throw Jim Balsillie a bone by saying that since he was already approved by the league as an owner in 2007 (and unless things had dramatically changed) it would be no less than good faith to assume that he would be approved today. “Absent… material changes in PSE’s conditions since 2006, it appears to the court that the NHL cannot object or withhold its’ consent to PSE becoming the controlling owner of the Phoenix Coyotes.”, he said. I wonder if challenging the league in court and trying to circumvent league rules might constitute a change in circumstances.

Woven through Judge Tom’s bankruptcy decision was plenty of homespun advice to all parties.

For Jerry Moyes, there was a very pointed message. You signed up to be a member of the NHL. You agreed to play by these rules. And your filings were late, in some cases incomplete and did not comply with league rules.

For the NHL, it was a message that while today’s ruling pretty much guaranteed that the Coyotes will stay this season in Phoenix, the future of the franchise is still murky. The team will be auctioned off in the future. And the Judge also made it clear that moving a franchise has not “wreaked havoc” on professional sports leagues. That argument won’t work here.

And Glendale, the big winner in yesterday’s ruling can take some solace in the judges’ words. “It is proper for the court to refuse to authorize rejection of an executor contract where the party whose contract is to be rejected would be damaged disproportionately to any benefit to be derived by the general creditors.” The judge, however, went on to chastise Glendale for a less than complete accounting of the general creditors. Nevertheless, he made his point loud and clear. Breaking this contract will take a lot. That’s probably the best news for the long term prospects of the franchise.

So today, the Coyotes live. It’s hardly a clean bill of health but for it sure beats the alternatives. Like most big wins in the hockey, the franchise needs to build on this win. Simply getting a stay of execution is not enough. The organization needs to make big changes in the on-ice product, off-ice marketing and slash organizational expenses to make certain that hockey grows its’ appeal in Phoenix. It’s good to get one win under your belt. Now the organization and the NHL need to think about closing out the series.

Always keeping in mind that the last win of any series is always the hardest.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Tick, Tick, Tick

The earliest we will be hearing from Judge Tom is Monday June 15th. If he were to rule in favor of the Moyes-Balsillie arguments in the Coyotes bankruptcy hearing, the team would be auctioned off on Monday June 22nd.

Of course, that assumes nothing gets in the way of the bankruptcy decision and the auction. And "nothing" is not a likely outcome.

If Judge Tom (and we now have confirmed that's what he likes to be called) drops a Baumshell says the auction is on, then there will likely be two immediate appeals (the NHL and The City of Glendale) and the possibility of additional flanker lawsuits from involved parties like ARAMARK. In the cases of the NHL and Glendale, appeals to the 9th District Court of Appeals will almost surely ask for injunctions against the auction based on all of the the legal issues that have been catalogued here and elsewhere.

Which puts this entire debate squarely on the clock. The auction is scheduled in 7 days. The NHL draft is in 12 days. Free agency opens 5 days after the draft. And the NHL schedule is traditionally announced right after the 4th of July. (It is in fact completed) And Judge Tom is leaving on vacation a week from Tuesday.

So?

Well, I think that the good Judge has clearly helped the short term hand of the NHL by delaying the decision until at least Monday. He knows there will be appeals and injunctions. He knows that getting all issues cleared so that there can be an auction in 7 days is highly unlikely. And he knows that the Balsillie bid could expire, although no one really expects him to stop chasing the team. He also knows that the NHL has offered to fund the team until a September auction can be held.

And for all we know, he may have decided that the thought of having an auction on June 22nd simply isn't going to work.

Some Canadian reporters have speculated that the judge may be making time for the two sides to reach a negotiated settlement. That's highly unlikely. If there were talks underway, it would have been leaked to the Canadian press by now. And any negotiation that would move the team would still be subject to the full wrath of Glendale and their lawyers. No one is going to work a deal with them.

And he also knows that there are antitrust implications. The league would likely vote quickly to deny the franchise transfer. That would only set off more court battles and a less swift recovery for the creditors.

The logical explanation is that The Judge has decided to delay the auction to September. The Judge knows that the asset is not going to lose value. And he also knows the NHL will fund the team until a new owner is found. Whether or not he sides with Moyes/Balsillie or the NHL, he also knows that any decision to conduct the auction next Monday will be appealed and likely delayed by injunction.

Of course, any time a lay man (or in this case, a blogger) decides to interpret the law and predict what judges are going to do, it comes with no guarantee.

So for now, we wait. I would much rather be writing about the very interesting draft, free agent and trade market that will open later this week. Hopefully we can get on to that by the middle of the week.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Remember, Glendale's Got (Skin In The) Game

Overshadowed by the discussion of a relocation fee was the arguments from the City of Glendale at Tuesday's hearing. From most available accounts, the attorneys representing the City made an impassioned and eloquent case why the arena lease should not be tossed out in bankruptcy.

Which leads us to an interesting place.

If Judge Baum (Tom to you and me) decides that the asset is mobile and he forces the parties to set a relocation fee, either by arbitration or negotiation, that in effect means that the franchise could be moved. And while it may or may not determine movement, it would indicate that the judge intends to set aside the Glendale lease. That set aside would come with some level of damages but the return to the city could be negligible.

So if the judge moves us to a "portable" phase, does that mean that Glendale has in effect lost their contention that the lease is ironclad and the franchise is not portable? And if that's the case. what's to keep the City from appealing the decision at that point?

I'm sure that the lawyers representing both the City and the NHL are working closely on this case. It would seem that Glendale may well use this decision as a jumping off point to start a legal appeal in the 9th District Court of Appeals. And probably seek an injunction to stop any sale that would move the asset out of Glendale.

Don't for a minute think Glendale is going to take this decision sitting down. They will independently and aggressively seek to have the lease enforced. The only question I see is timing. If Glendale sees the initial judgement as vacating the lease, I wonder why they would wait to start the appeals process.

Remember that Judge Tom is not available from June 23rd to July 5th. If the Coyotes auction is not settled by June 30th, the Balsillie offer expires. Running out the clock is more closely associated with basketball than hockey but hey, this is a game, isn't it?

And Tom, have a nice vacation. Be sure to write.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Everybody Has Their Price

Yesterday I suggested that no one really knew what to expect at today’s bankruptcy hearing. You knew, just knew that there was something, somewhere buried in the legal avalanche that would spice up the proceedings.

Well that something came in the form of a “relocation fee” that the NHL indicated it would charge should the franchise be moved to a different market.

After losing their attempt to stop the Raiders 1985 move to Los Angeles the NFL got a pound of flesh from the Raiders by charging a relocation fee. The NHL followed their lead and included in their brief to Judge Baum their intention to charge this fee if the franchise were moved. The dollar figure was blacked out in the legal documents that were provided to the press but a Balsillie lawyer blurted it out while addressing the court.

$100 Million Dollars.

Oh, and that is apparently only an estimate. The Balsillie camp says that’s an estimate that can be negotiated down. I wouldn’t bet on that. Estimates can also be negotiated up.

The NHL put this in part to reduce the amount of money that would be returned to creditors if the Balsillie offer is accepted. Think of it this way – Balsillie offers an inflated price for the asset because he knows a Southern Ontario franchise is worth more than a Phoenix franchise. The NHL counters by saying we are going to add a relocation fee to flatten (or even tilt) the playing field. It takes away any advantage Balsillie had gained by offering to overpay for the asset.
Judge Tom Baum (his friends call him Tom and how many people do you know go by Redfield?) seemed fixated on the relocation fee. Put a number on it. Negotiate it. See if Jim Balsillie wants to open up his wallet for another $100 million or so. It was your idea, NHL, now let’s talk about it.

Put a number out in the stratosphere and even your garden variety billionaire might pick up his pucks and go home.

This could prove to be the turd in the punch bowl that spoils the Moyes-Balsillie party. The relocation fee would be charged by the NHL. As a secured creditor, they go to the front of the line. It would potentially reduce or even eliminate the amount of money that would be available to pay Jerry Moyes. All of a sudden that lowball offer from Jerry Reinsdorf may start looking pretty good.

Conversely, there’s a real risk when you put a price on something. A few years ago Microsoft wanted to license the song “Start Me Up” to introduce their Windows product. Yeah right, said Mick Jagger. How about $12 million dollars Mr. Gates? Well, sure…what’s $12 million when you’re worth $50 billion? It’s all relative, isn’t it?

The optimist in me says that the NHL , in addition to the relocation fee, will likely remind everyone that should not be confused with a territorial rights fee that will undoubtedly by demanded by the Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres. That will run the tab even higher.

Of course, there’s another darker way to view all of this. There seems to be just a little less steely resolve coming from the NHL right now. Maybe they are just a little less committed to keeping the Coyotes in Phoenix. Once there’s a price on relocating the team, it’s possible other potential owners and locales may surface, For instance, Jerry Bruckheimer in Las Vegas.

There used to be a wrestler who went around saying everyone has their price. Through his schemes and tricks he ultimately proved, everyone did have their price.

That’s an ominous thought right now. Because if the NHL has their price, someone may just, just be willing to pay it.

(Be back with more later including a POV on Glendale’s impassioned plea for the team)

Monday, June 8, 2009

Come Tuesday?

No one is really sure what to expect in tomorrow's bankruptcy court hearing.

The courts always look to past court decisions to see what precedent has been set in a specific type of court case. I remember asking one of my college professors (a long time ago in a land far, far away) exactly what happens when their is precedent supporting both sides of a court case. "That's when it gets interesting" he replied.

But in this case, it's not that easy. The NHL will cite the California Seals bankruptcy hearings from the early 1970s that sided with the NHL and the league constitution. The Moyes-Balsillie rebut will be what about the 1970 Seattle Pilots decision? The Moyes team is sure to invoke the Oakland-Los Angeles-Oakland Raiders journey through the courts. The NHL will counter with the aborted moves of the Ottawa Senators and St. Louis Blues, both of which were thwarted in the courts. And of course, the low profile player (with the most to lose here) Glendale, AZ will no doubt bring up the 1998 Pittsburgh Penguins bankruptcy where the arena lease was preserved much in the manner of a secured creditor.

The truth is that there is no absolute precedent so Judge Redfield T. Baum will be breaking new legal ground as he rules on the bankruptcy, probably later in the week.

There are many things to consider in advance of tomorrow's hearing. US Bankruptcy laws have undergone two major overhauls since the 1970s and the changes are so profound that older legal arguments may not be appropriate. All sports leagues revised their constitutions after the initial Raiders/NFL decision to close loopholes that might allow a team to move without league permission..

There are two key points that I expect will emerge as the focus of the hearing tomorrow.

The NHL constitution has all kinds of safeguards and legal remedies that the Coyotes ownership agreed to uphold as a member team. The constitution protects territorial rights, allows the league to control where teams play, seizes a team once the franchise is breached (as when the Coyotes were placed in bankruptcy) and gives the commissioner absolute power as the arbitrator of any disputes between member teams. If Judge Baum rules in favor of Moyes & Balsillie, he will essentially have to throw out the entire NHL Constitution. That's a lot to ask of a bankruptcy court and it will certainly trigger an appeal by the NHL that would be accompanied by injunctions against moving the franchise and appeals that would go on for months and possibly years. As Gary Bettman has been saying, "it's all about the rules".

And the second, less discussed key is the great city of Glendale, AZ. The city has brought in their own legal heavyweights to argue their position. They have quietly laid out a case that having the major tenant leave town would be a disaster for the arena, the city and the taxpayers. Don't forget the last point. Someone is going to foot a very large bill here if the Coyotes leave town. Judge Baum will get an earful about how local residents, his fellow Arizonans, will suffer if the Coyotes leave Phoenix. And he will be in the uncomfortable position of telling a lot of people that they will be suffering for a long time if he decides to maximize the return for the creditors.

On one hand, Judge Baum has said that the Moyes-Balsille deal is asking a lot (to throw out the structure of professional sports as we know it) of a bankruptcy judge. But he has also has noted that Balsillie is the only guy here who has showed up with real money.

When I first learned about casino gambling, I picked up a very important lesson. When given a choice, bet with the house,. not against the house. I think that taxpayers constitute the house here and I would bet that the NHL, with a very strong assist from Glendale prevails.

But I would also not be surprised in the least if the decision goes in favor of Moyes-Balsillie and legal process rocks on. And if that happens we'll be back to speculate some more.

Of course, with the draft 19 days away, we would prefer to turn our attention back to the rink.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

The Briefs Are In...

And what fascinating reading they make...

The Toronto Star has a wealth of documentation on their site including the previously secret NHL Constitution and By-Laws, news of a second Canadian group bidding for the Coyotes (clearly one without Jim Balsillie's public relations skills) and news of 3 (that's three, no kidding) Phoenix groups bidding to keep the Coyotes in Phoenix. In addition to the Reinsdorf-Kaites and Breslow offers previously disclosed, there's also a third group fronted by an anonymous Phoenix businessman.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/article/646798

The article also quotes Gary Bettman as claiming in an NHL filing that the City of Glendale is willing to make "accommodations" to enhance the revenue possibilities for the Coyotes.

Lawyers for Jerry Moyes and Jim Balsillie have called numerous parts of the constitution into question as illegal and anti-competitive. Of course, they do not take notice that all league members enter into the constitution voluntarily and benefit from many of the common interest sections of the document. A quick read of the NHL Constitution would indicate that a) it is a thorough legal document, b) it is extremely detailed and nuanced and c) it will take a lot of moxey for a judge to throw out the document and allow an end run through bankruptcy court.

And as was previously reported yesterday, the other three major professional sports leagues have joined the fray, filing a friend of the court brief in support of the NHL.

Several Toronto newspapers have reported this week that the Toronto Maple Leafs have quietly but firmly made their NHL partners aware how vehemently they oppose the proposed move. The Leafs not only control the hockey universe in Southern Ontario, they also control the arena they play in which is a virtual monopoly on one of North America's largest metropolitan markets. While the Leafs franchise could likely withstand any second team in Southern Ontario, their is real concern that money from non hockey events would be diminished by a second NHL team in the area. And while most of the attention of the 50-mile territorial protection has been directed towards the Toronto Maple Leafs, keep in mind that the corporate city limits of Hamilton, Ontario are exactly 43 miles from the corporate city limits of Buffalo, New York.

Of course, we can assume that Glendale has also filed numerous briefs. None are public at this time but they will certainly do everything within the cities' power to tie the franchise to the existing lease.

It will be a fascinating week. The hearing is Tuesday, the judge's decision will likely come by the end of the week and the appeals and further courtroom drama will certainly elevate to a higher level once the initial legal judgement is in. Appeals are almost certain no matter who wins or loses. Much more as we have time to digest all of the documents.

Update 2:10 PM -- The Toronto Globe & Mail is reporting that the second Canadian group bidding for the Coyotes (the owners of the Toronto Argonauts Canadian Football League Team) want to operate the team in Phoenix, not Toronto. Wow.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/bettman-claims-argo-owners-interested-in-buying-coyotes/article1172250/

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Eklund on Upshall

I am sure most of you are aware of Eklund, the unknown hockey blogger. He loves to manufacture rumors and like a broken clock, he's usually right about twice a day. He did however have an interesting note about the Flyers and the trade of Scott Upshall that I thought would be interesting to Coyote fans...

The Flyers need to look a little more to their locker room right now. As much as I think Dan Carcillo can play the game, the trading of Scottie Upshall was more damaging to that team's balance than any has probably ever openly stated. He was one of the boys in the band. It was always Hartnell, Carter, Richards, Lupul, and Upshall. He was a dynamic and fun person that kept a lot of the other young stars somewhat honest. I was in the room after he got traded and it was like someone had died. The Flyers were destroyed the next game by Calgary.

Upshall will never be a big scorer and on a playoff team, he's a third line player. But he adds character and energy to his team. He's also the kind of force in the locker room that Don Maloney referenced when he talked about changing the chemistry of the Coyotes at the trade deadline. Some deals are evident by what you see on the ice; other require deeper study. Carcillo for Upshall was one of those deals that's easy to judge. And Upshall is a certainty to be qualified by Don Maloney and signed to a new contract.

As for Danny, I loved his pure energy but he really doesn't have a role on a good team. He's not skilled enough to be a top six forward and he doesn't check well enough to be on a shutdown line. This is one trade where just about everyone agrees that the Coyotes got the best of the bargain.

And in the next few days, we'll be talking about possible additions to the Coyotes roster this summer. One of the names in that conversation will be Joffrey Lupul.


Dimitri Kalinin

Multiple sources are reporting that UFA defenseman Dimitri Kalinin is choosing between offers from several teams in the Russian KHL. This is not surprising. Kalinin, who came over from the New York Rangers in a deadline trade and played pretty well for the Coyotes, was unlikely to be offered a contract after making $2.1MM last season.

Monday, June 1, 2009

The Dance

Gary Bettman and Jim Balsillie continue to posture. The Hockey Court of public opinion is open for business and the two primary protagonists in this battle for control of the Phoenix Coyotes (and the future of hockey in the desert) are using all of their public relation skills to build support for their positions.

Bettman has the bully pulpit of the commissioner to make sure that emotion and showmanship don't obscure the facts as he sees them. "From my standpoint, it's not personal," said Bettman in his state of the league speech before Saturday's Stanley Cup opener. "It's about league rules and it's about doing the right thing in terms of the stability of this game and this league."

"This is not just an NHL issue. This is not a Canada versus U.S. issue. This is not a Phoenix versus Hamilton issue."

The commissioner kept repeating that he had no personal problem with Jim Balsillie. It almost sound like that if he says it enough, even he might start believing it.

"The team was never in jeopardy," said Bettman. "It was literally 20 minutes away from being fixed in a way that we thought was going to work quite well. It's my view that the Coyotes should not be in bankruptcy."

Meanwhile, Balsillie continues his Obamaesque campaign to win the war of words. He's literally wrapped himself up in the Canadian flag as he touts the virtue of moving the Coyotes to Hamilton. Each day he has a new angle for the press to keep his name prominent in the news. From revamping the arena in Hamilton to filing a formal application to move the team to feeding the press more news about the issues in Phoenix, it's an impressive public relations campaign.

While Rim Jim has whipped up a lot of emotion in Canada, it's important to remember that the next decision in this case will be decided by an American judge in an Arizona courtroom. If the purpose of the Balsillie campaign is to pressure the NHL and its' member teams to soften their opposition, he's wasting his money. He may eventually get in the NHL door, but it is highly unlikely to be this door. A win for Jerry Moyes and Balsillie next week in bankruptcy court would only open the door for additional litigation that will drag on for years and years.

I'd love to see all of the energy and skilled manipulation of the press put to work in building hockey in Phoenix. If the team receives a reprise, then it's time for the city to show up and support the team. More than anything else, except perhaps a right handed defenseman, this team needs a cohesive and intelligent marketing and public relations campaign. You can fix problems. You cannot fix forever. Watching this dance is fun but after a while, it's going to get pretty old unless things start to change.

Extraordinary Play...Or Not?

During Sunday's playoff game, Henrik Zetterberg made an extraordinary play to slide behind goaltender Chris Osgood and keep the puck out of the net. It did appear however that he covered the puck in the crease, which should have resulted in a penalty shot. What I find amazing is that no announcer at the game, during the post mortem or in today's print coverage pointed out that referee Bill McCreary correctly ruled no goal but completely blew the call in the crease. Did I miss something or have they changed the rule?