After 17 games, the Coyotes are 10-7 and rank seventh in the Western Conference. If they could maintain that pace, it would project out to 96 points and based on history, that would be enough to make the playoffs.
It won't however be that easy.
It's been a better than expected start for the Coyotes that includes impressive wins over a number of power teams. And comes at the same time as two other Western Conference teams have kicked off the year with vastly improved fortunes. Los Angeles and Colorado are much improved. The uptick in Los Angeles was expected. The improvement in Colorado was not. If those two teams continue their improved play, the horse race for Western Conference playoff spots will be intense.
The Coyotes may well be in the best 5 team division in the NHL. San Jose once again looks to be the terror of the regular season. The Stars are solid and the Kings are vastly improved. Anaheim is off to a slow start but they may have the most talented roster outside of San Jose in the West.
Looking at the bigger Western Conference picture, no one expects Detroit to be on the outside looking in, even though they are not the same team they were in the past. An educated case is that the Coyotes will be competing with Dallas, Columbus & St. Louis for the last couple of playoff spots in the West. It will make every game interesting and important. No other professional sports league has such a compelling regular season.
To make the playoffs, it's essential for the Coyotes to win games they are capable of winning. Missed opportunities could well be the difference in making or missing the playoffs. The upcoming stretch of games against the Canadiens, Stars, Lightning, Wild, Blues represent 5 winnable games for the home team. Anything less than 7 points over this stretch would be a disappointment.
The Coyotes come to play every night. The work hard, play a disciplined 1-4 checking system (that's a trap for those of you who don't worship at the house of Jacques Lemaire) and they have generally gotten very good goaltending. And they still suffer from a lack of firepower that is a serious long term concern for the franchise.
So what should we expect?
More of the same. Lots of low scoring tight checking games. A continued emphasis on defensive play. And something novel and interesting -- a trade deadline where the Coyotes will likely be buyers rather than sellers.
As we've discussed here many times, the most crucial element for the team will be the goaltending of Ilya Bryzgalov. Bryz has been awfully good for the first five weeks of the season. The Coyotes are 3rd in the league in goals allowed average. Bryzgalov has been steady almost every night and sensational on several. If you have followed his career, you know that he tends to run hot and cold. So far, mostly hot. That's a good thing.
He's getting a lot of help from a mobile and deep defense. Ed Jovanoski, currently "day to day" with a lower body injury has been the team's best skater. His absence for any length of time could be devastating. The motivation of playing for a spot on the Canadian Olympic team and the Coyotes new management have rejuvenated the 33-year-old defenseman. He's playing like the player that Phoenix expected when former GM Mike Barnett gave him a $32.5MM contract 4 summers ago.
Jovo has had plenty of help. Keith Yandle is having a breakout season. Sami Lepisto has been a nice rookie surprise. Veterans Adrian Aucioin and Jim Vandermeer have come as advertised and Zbynek Michalek has been his usually sturdy self.
In fact the biggest problem the defense has had is staying on the ice. In addition to Jovanoski, Kurt Sauer has been out since the opener with concussion symptoms, Michalek is currently week to week with that dreaded lower body injury. In fact there's enough injury concern that GMDM is kicking the tires on 47 year old Chris Chelios who is currently playing in the American League.
With the back end playing well, the issue for the team was and will continue to be the lack of reliable scoring.
The Coyotes are 21st in the league in goals per game. Considering the roster on hand, that's not bad. Only Shane Doan and Robert Lang have ever had as much a s two 20 goal seasons and several regular forwards have never broken 20.
The Coyotes knew going in that goals would be at a premium this year. They are. Scott Upshall and Matt Lombardi have helped the offense and there's hope that one or more of the young guns sent to San Antonio might show enough promise to be back by the second half of the season.
But don't rule out the possibility of a trade for a goalscorer, should the right one become available. With players like Kyle Turris and Mikkel Boedker in the American League, the Coyotes are less than $300K above the salary cap floor. Unless Don Maloney is working under a burn the furniture budget (and he swears he is not) there is money to add a goalscorer. And there are future assets to deal including several young players who have not yet turned pro and future draft choices including the first acquired from Calgary for Olli Jokinen.
Depending what teams are and are not in playoff consideration will dictate what players are available but you may want to look east where the haves and have nots are quickly being sorted out and some veteran scorers (i.e. Ray Whitney & Jason Blake) may become available. In the past few years, now for later trades were unthinkable for the Coyotes. If the current scenario holds, they will be essential.
And as we complete the first quarter of the season, it's good to keep in mind that teams often over and under achieve in the first few weeks of the season. Part of that can be a carryover (both good and bad) from prior years, new coaching or the relative health of a team. History is littered with teams that don't finish the season the way that they start the year.
For the sake of the future of the Coyotes, let's hope they don't get caught up in that pattern this year.
Showing posts with label Jim Vandermeer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jim Vandermeer. Show all posts
Monday, November 9, 2009
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
The Team, The Team -- A 2009-10 Coyotes Preview
While much of the news surrounding the Coyotes has been about off-ice happenings this year, there is still a roster to assemble and a season to play.
GMDM has worked under extraordinary circumstances this summer. Give Maloney much credit for getting ANYONE to agree to come to Phoenix with all the uncertainty surrounding the team. In fact, he's managed to bring in some nice pieces.
And the Coyotes need all the nice pieces they can get. A playoff contending team is a necessity to get the town thinking about hockey again. It's tough to be a win-now team with a (close to) minimum budget.
The Coyotes success this season will start (and hopefully not stop) with their goaltending. Specifically Ilya Bryzgalov, the team's top goaltender must, must have a good season for the Coyotes to compete for a playoff spot. It's an imperative -- there's really no viable fallback position.
Last year, Ilya's play was wildly inconsistent. Catch him on a good night and the team had a chance to win. But on what turned out to be way too many bad nights, he was just awful. So awful that hockey's nicest man, Wayne Gretzky, publicly called out his goaltender. The Coyotes simply can't afford awful this year; their margin for error is too small.
I've never been sold on Bryz and in fact suggested last spring that the Coyotes might consider moving him and looking for a replacement. So far, his career has been built on two very good hot streaks -- through the end of the regular season and the playoffs for the 2006 Almighty Ducks (why did they ever drop that great name?) and a great run when he first joined the Coyotes in 2007. One of those streaks would be nice right now. What would be even nicer is a consistent season that delivers very good play over the long haul.
The alternatives in goal are not compelling. Jason LaBarbera was a curious free agent signing who has had a checkered career. Al Montoya's regular season in San Antonio was spotty last year but he was impressive in a late-season call up and training camp. His reward was a trip to San Antonio but if he plays well and others falter, he could be back in Phoenix quickly.
What will help is a more mobile and talented defense. Arguably, the team's two best off season acquisitions were backliners Adrian Aucoin and Jim Vandermeer. Aucoin is a minutes eater who will give the team excellent puck movement and an offensive threat to go with Ed Jovanoski. Vandemeer is oh, so slow but he plays with an edge and makes the backliner tougher. Sami Lepisto, a draft day acquisition from Washington, is another mobile player. Combined with returnees Jovanoski, Zbynek Michalek, Keith Yandle and Kurt Sauer, it's a deep and talented group.
It will need to be because the Coyotes will having trouble scoring goals. Shane Doan, who has scored 20+ goals 9 straight years, will continue to be the linchpin of the offense. But other than Doaner, no player has sever scored 20 or more twice in their carrer and only 4 (Vrbata, Lombardi, Mueller, Prucha) have even done it once.
Much of the hope for improved scoring will come from a return to rookie season form by Mueller and rapid improvement from last years first draft pick, Mikkel Boedker. The Coyotes also hope that late season acquisitions Matthew Lombardi and Scottie Upshall continue to benefit from increased ice time and raise their offensive production. They are also hoping that Radim Vrbata can repeat his lighting in a bottle season from 2007-08. About the only thing that is certain is that there's a lot of hope going on here.
Update 11:45 AM -- The Coyotes have helped their offense today. Pending a physical, the Coyotes have signed veteran NHL center (and 7 time 20 goal scorer) Robert Lang. Details forthcoming. Interesting move. Lang, 38, was 18-21-39 in 50 games for Montreal last year before suffering a torn Achilles tendon. Assuming he's healthy, it will be interesting to see what he has left in the tank. Could be an excellent signing.
Dave Tippett has a good group of accomplished checkers and defensive players available to form quality checking and penalty killing units. Newcomers Vernon Fiddler and Lauri Korpikoski are accomplished penalty killers and both have some offensive upside. They will join Marty Hanzal to give the team good defensive options. Tippett's work is cut out for him, the Coyotes were 29th in the league in penalty killing last year. Improvement here and on the power play are absolutely necessary for the team to be more competitive this year.
Perhaps what's as important are players who are no longer here. Derek Morris was listless and disinterested in his last Phoenix season. Olli Jokinen was disappointing on the ice and an apparent problem in the locker room. And David Hale and Todd Fedoruk were little more than bottom of the roster players. None will be missed.
The Coyotes should be sturdier on defense, better on special teams and faster than last years edition. They also have a well stocked farm team in San Antonio with numerous players motivated to get back to Phoenix. It should help keep roster players motivated knowing that reinforcements are only a phone call away.
For the 2009-10 Coyotes, it's all going to come down to goaltending and the ability to score goals. There are going to be a lot of tight games this year. There's not a lot of margin for error.
Oh, and some off ice clarity wouldn't hurt. It would allow the team to keep their focus where it most definitely needs to be -- on the ice.
GMDM has worked under extraordinary circumstances this summer. Give Maloney much credit for getting ANYONE to agree to come to Phoenix with all the uncertainty surrounding the team. In fact, he's managed to bring in some nice pieces.
And the Coyotes need all the nice pieces they can get. A playoff contending team is a necessity to get the town thinking about hockey again. It's tough to be a win-now team with a (close to) minimum budget.
The Coyotes success this season will start (and hopefully not stop) with their goaltending. Specifically Ilya Bryzgalov, the team's top goaltender must, must have a good season for the Coyotes to compete for a playoff spot. It's an imperative -- there's really no viable fallback position.
Last year, Ilya's play was wildly inconsistent. Catch him on a good night and the team had a chance to win. But on what turned out to be way too many bad nights, he was just awful. So awful that hockey's nicest man, Wayne Gretzky, publicly called out his goaltender. The Coyotes simply can't afford awful this year; their margin for error is too small.
I've never been sold on Bryz and in fact suggested last spring that the Coyotes might consider moving him and looking for a replacement. So far, his career has been built on two very good hot streaks -- through the end of the regular season and the playoffs for the 2006 Almighty Ducks (why did they ever drop that great name?) and a great run when he first joined the Coyotes in 2007. One of those streaks would be nice right now. What would be even nicer is a consistent season that delivers very good play over the long haul.
The alternatives in goal are not compelling. Jason LaBarbera was a curious free agent signing who has had a checkered career. Al Montoya's regular season in San Antonio was spotty last year but he was impressive in a late-season call up and training camp. His reward was a trip to San Antonio but if he plays well and others falter, he could be back in Phoenix quickly.
What will help is a more mobile and talented defense. Arguably, the team's two best off season acquisitions were backliners Adrian Aucoin and Jim Vandermeer. Aucoin is a minutes eater who will give the team excellent puck movement and an offensive threat to go with Ed Jovanoski. Vandemeer is oh, so slow but he plays with an edge and makes the backliner tougher. Sami Lepisto, a draft day acquisition from Washington, is another mobile player. Combined with returnees Jovanoski, Zbynek Michalek, Keith Yandle and Kurt Sauer, it's a deep and talented group.
It will need to be because the Coyotes will having trouble scoring goals. Shane Doan, who has scored 20+ goals 9 straight years, will continue to be the linchpin of the offense. But other than Doaner, no player has sever scored 20 or more twice in their carrer and only 4 (Vrbata, Lombardi, Mueller, Prucha) have even done it once.
Much of the hope for improved scoring will come from a return to rookie season form by Mueller and rapid improvement from last years first draft pick, Mikkel Boedker. The Coyotes also hope that late season acquisitions Matthew Lombardi and Scottie Upshall continue to benefit from increased ice time and raise their offensive production. They are also hoping that Radim Vrbata can repeat his lighting in a bottle season from 2007-08. About the only thing that is certain is that there's a lot of hope going on here.
Update 11:45 AM -- The Coyotes have helped their offense today. Pending a physical, the Coyotes have signed veteran NHL center (and 7 time 20 goal scorer) Robert Lang. Details forthcoming. Interesting move. Lang, 38, was 18-21-39 in 50 games for Montreal last year before suffering a torn Achilles tendon. Assuming he's healthy, it will be interesting to see what he has left in the tank. Could be an excellent signing.
Dave Tippett has a good group of accomplished checkers and defensive players available to form quality checking and penalty killing units. Newcomers Vernon Fiddler and Lauri Korpikoski are accomplished penalty killers and both have some offensive upside. They will join Marty Hanzal to give the team good defensive options. Tippett's work is cut out for him, the Coyotes were 29th in the league in penalty killing last year. Improvement here and on the power play are absolutely necessary for the team to be more competitive this year.
Perhaps what's as important are players who are no longer here. Derek Morris was listless and disinterested in his last Phoenix season. Olli Jokinen was disappointing on the ice and an apparent problem in the locker room. And David Hale and Todd Fedoruk were little more than bottom of the roster players. None will be missed.
The Coyotes should be sturdier on defense, better on special teams and faster than last years edition. They also have a well stocked farm team in San Antonio with numerous players motivated to get back to Phoenix. It should help keep roster players motivated knowing that reinforcements are only a phone call away.
For the 2009-10 Coyotes, it's all going to come down to goaltending and the ability to score goals. There are going to be a lot of tight games this year. There's not a lot of margin for error.
Oh, and some off ice clarity wouldn't hurt. It would allow the team to keep their focus where it most definitely needs to be -- on the ice.
Monday, September 28, 2009
While (Judge) Tom Slept...
It's been 17 days since bids were tendered in the Coyotes bankruptcy and 5 days since an "emergency" hearing was held to hear the Moyes/Balsillie plea for mediation. A lot has happened in those 17 days.
The Coyotes have cut their training camp to 23 skaters. Surprises? Turris, MacLean, Tikhonov all head to San Antonio while Porter, Lepisto and Winnik make the big club. Management was sending out signals all summer that Turris needed AHL seasoning but it was surprising seeing Tikhonov go down. Turris doesn't have an NHL body right now and there's got to be concern within the organization that he may never become the impact player the team envisioned with the third overall pick. While Tikhonov was clearly rushed last year, his responsible defensive play and NHL size made this reassignment a surprise.
On the plus side, Porter has been noticeable at almost every practice and game I've seen. His play has clearly improved from a year ago. Lepisto is a mobile option on defense who has a nice feel for the game. He also is benefiting from 2 years of AHL seasoning (not a bad idea, eh?)in the Washington system. Vandemeer is oh so slow but he adds grit and experience and Vernon Fiddler is a carbon copy of the player he replaced, Steven Rupprecht.
The downside? Goals are going to be at a premium. It's hard to see this team scoring much more than last year. Unless the offense finds new life, this team will need every ounce of Dave Tippett's coaching skill to keep the goals allowed down and keep the team in games.
Tippett is the Coyotes new head coach. If you haven't heard already, this is the best news the franchise has had all year. Tippett is an accomplished coach who knows how to mold a responsible team. In 6 seasons in Dallas, his teams made the playoffs 5times and the 6th season was wrecked by injuries. His special teams are typically among the best in the league and his attention to team defense is exemplary. And he'll need every ounce of that coaching acumen to bring this team into the playoffs.
The Coyotes also came up with an inventive way of filling the arena on opening night by slashing ticket prices and calling for a the first white-out ever at Jobing.com arena. It appears to be working -- late word from Glendale is that under 2,000 tickets remain for the opener.
While much has happened over the last 17 days, what has not happened is any movement in the team's bankruptcy case.
While The Judge mulls over the case, much still remains unresolved. Opening night notwithstanding, ticket sales still have much ground to make up. A quick check of the dasher boards at an exhibition game showed at least 8 primary sponsor slots still available. Understandably but unfortunately, front office staffers have been jumping ship at an alarming rate.
If Judge Tom was truly committed to enhancing the value of the asset, he would have made the call on this case long ago. Every day that passes is a ticket that goes unsold, a marketing opportunity lost and a further degradation of the value of the asset. While the law needs to be adjudicated properly, this delay isn't helping the asset survive.
The Judge must understand by now that the two sides are not going to work this out. Meditation isn't going to solve the problem. You need two parties that want to settle for mediation to work. The NHL won't settle this case without anything less than a total and complete victory. They not only want to beat Jim Balsillie, they want to crush him. He's cost the league millions of dollars, plenty of bad publicity and much time and energy that could have been better spent elsewhere. Those transgressions will not be dismissed lightly. Or mediated away.
Judge Baum's decision will be appealed by either the NHL or Moyes or Glendale (or all three depending on what he comes back with) so it makes sense that it needs to be legally sound. That said, much of what he decides and writes will come directly out of his June 15th decision. So we'll wait, not very patiently, for the Judge to come in.
But we'll continue to caution him as well as anyone else who is listening that each day lost works directly against what he is supposed to prevent from happening.
The Coyotes have cut their training camp to 23 skaters. Surprises? Turris, MacLean, Tikhonov all head to San Antonio while Porter, Lepisto and Winnik make the big club. Management was sending out signals all summer that Turris needed AHL seasoning but it was surprising seeing Tikhonov go down. Turris doesn't have an NHL body right now and there's got to be concern within the organization that he may never become the impact player the team envisioned with the third overall pick. While Tikhonov was clearly rushed last year, his responsible defensive play and NHL size made this reassignment a surprise.
On the plus side, Porter has been noticeable at almost every practice and game I've seen. His play has clearly improved from a year ago. Lepisto is a mobile option on defense who has a nice feel for the game. He also is benefiting from 2 years of AHL seasoning (not a bad idea, eh?)in the Washington system. Vandemeer is oh so slow but he adds grit and experience and Vernon Fiddler is a carbon copy of the player he replaced, Steven Rupprecht.
The downside? Goals are going to be at a premium. It's hard to see this team scoring much more than last year. Unless the offense finds new life, this team will need every ounce of Dave Tippett's coaching skill to keep the goals allowed down and keep the team in games.
Tippett is the Coyotes new head coach. If you haven't heard already, this is the best news the franchise has had all year. Tippett is an accomplished coach who knows how to mold a responsible team. In 6 seasons in Dallas, his teams made the playoffs 5times and the 6th season was wrecked by injuries. His special teams are typically among the best in the league and his attention to team defense is exemplary. And he'll need every ounce of that coaching acumen to bring this team into the playoffs.
The Coyotes also came up with an inventive way of filling the arena on opening night by slashing ticket prices and calling for a the first white-out ever at Jobing.com arena. It appears to be working -- late word from Glendale is that under 2,000 tickets remain for the opener.
While much has happened over the last 17 days, what has not happened is any movement in the team's bankruptcy case.
While The Judge mulls over the case, much still remains unresolved. Opening night notwithstanding, ticket sales still have much ground to make up. A quick check of the dasher boards at an exhibition game showed at least 8 primary sponsor slots still available. Understandably but unfortunately, front office staffers have been jumping ship at an alarming rate.
If Judge Tom was truly committed to enhancing the value of the asset, he would have made the call on this case long ago. Every day that passes is a ticket that goes unsold, a marketing opportunity lost and a further degradation of the value of the asset. While the law needs to be adjudicated properly, this delay isn't helping the asset survive.
The Judge must understand by now that the two sides are not going to work this out. Meditation isn't going to solve the problem. You need two parties that want to settle for mediation to work. The NHL won't settle this case without anything less than a total and complete victory. They not only want to beat Jim Balsillie, they want to crush him. He's cost the league millions of dollars, plenty of bad publicity and much time and energy that could have been better spent elsewhere. Those transgressions will not be dismissed lightly. Or mediated away.
Judge Baum's decision will be appealed by either the NHL or Moyes or Glendale (or all three depending on what he comes back with) so it makes sense that it needs to be legally sound. That said, much of what he decides and writes will come directly out of his June 15th decision. So we'll wait, not very patiently, for the Judge to come in.
But we'll continue to caution him as well as anyone else who is listening that each day lost works directly against what he is supposed to prevent from happening.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
